Decision Science NMIMS Assignment December 2023

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Decision Science NMIMS Assignment December 2023

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Decision Science NMIMS Assignment Solution December 2023.

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NMIMS Global Access
School for Continuing Education (NGA-SCE)
Course: Decision Science
Internal Assignment Applicable for December 2023 Examination
Assignment Marks: 30
Instructions:
 All Questions carry equal marks.
 All Questions are compulsory
 All answers to be explained in not more than 1000 words for question 1 and 2 and for question 3 in not more than 500 words for each subsection. Use relevant examples, illustrations as far as possible.
 All answers to be written individually. Discussion and group work is not advisable.
 Students are free to refer to any books/reference material/website/internet for attempting their assignments, but are not allowed to copy the matter as it is from the source of reference.
 Students should write the assignment in their own words. Copying of assignments from other students is not allowed.
 Students should follow the following parameter for answering the assignment questions.
Q1. Draw the decision tree diagram and explain the best possible decision based on EMVs (expected Monetary Values)
On the 1st April 2023, Rajinder Saproo, an investor is in a dilemma for the investment of 10 lakh INR. He has consulted his Mumbai based friend, MukulBhai Gadhecha, an investment expert for this matter. Mr Saproo went to meet him at his office located at Prabhadevi. Mukulbhai asked him to express his feeling for the market situation in coming economic year.

Mr Saproo assumed the economic growth for the coming year in the following way.
10 % optimist for the ‘Good Economic Growth’
50 % optimist for the ‘Moderate Economic Growth’
40 % optimist for the ‘Lower Economic Growth’.
In addition to this, MuKulbhai Gadhecha carried out his analysis to derive possible payoff values considering the various investment options as per the economic situations (presented in the table given below). Figures are in INR on the investment of whole amount of 10 lakhs.
Options
Good Economic Growth
Moderate Economic Growth
Lower Economic Growth’
Mauti Suzuki Shares
3,00,000
1,20,000
50,000
TATA Motor Shares
4,00,000
1,00,000
10,000
D Mart shares
4,50,000
2,30,000
30,000
If you were in place of Mukulbhai Gadhecha, What do you recommend to Mr. Saproo?
Note: You are not allowed to use any software for the calculation. But for the preparation of Decision tree diagram you are advised to use Software like MS -Word, PowerPoint etc.
(10 Marks)
Q2. Draw the appropriate chart using MS EXCEL, also carryout Exponential Smoothing model in MS EXCEL for the given Alpha values, copy the results (from EXCEL to Word) and explain which alpha is relatively better for the forecast. In this journey of identification of relatively better way of forecasting you may take the support of MAD and MSE type of errors. Suggested Alpha values are 0.1, 0.2, 0.5, 0.7, 0.9. (10 Marks)
Yield of Groundnut (Kg./hectare) 2000-01 977 2001-02 1127 2002-03 694 2003-04 1357 2004-05 1020 2005-06 1187 2006-07 866 2007-08 1459 2008-09 1163 2009-10 991 2010-11 1411 2011-12 1323 2012-13 995 2013-14 1764 2014-15 1552 2015-16 1465 2016-17 1398 2017-18 1893 2018-19 1422 2019-20 2063 2020-21 1703 2021-22 1758
Data Source: RBI
Q3. A) You are not advised to use Software in this case, show the calculation-steps typed in your MS-word file.
In Roshni lights ( manufacturer of Mirchi lights) A production run of 2000 set of Mirchi lights being tested for the life, the data shows that life is normally distributed with an average life span of 90 days and a standard deviation of 10 days. What is the probability if a set of Mirchi lights randomly selected from that lot, survived up to 100 days? (5 Marks)
Q3 B) Draw an appropriate chart to show the contribution of each category (in percent form) of Micro, small and medium Enterprises (MSMEs) at the state level. (You may use the MS EXCEL). In conclusion also write, why you have chosen this graph for this problem?
(5 Marks)
StateName
DistrictName
Total MSMEs
Micro
Small
Medium
UTTARAKHAND
ALMORA
1235
1068
150
17
UTTARAKHAND
BAGESHWAR
838
807
29
2
UTTARAKHAND
CHAMOLI
739
688
49
2
UTTARAKHAND
CHAMPAWAT
802
745
55
2
UTTARAKHAND
DEHRADUN
12605
10600
1909
96
UTTARAKHAND
HARIDWAR
8883
6416
2263
204
UTTARAKHAND
NAINITAL
3752
3003
675
74
UTTARAKHAND
PAURI GARHWAL
4955
4678
264
13
UTTARAKHAND
PITHORAGARH
1061
962
95
4
UTTARAKHAND
RUDRA PRAYAG
740
698
37
5
UTTARAKHAND
TEHRI GARHWAL
1399
1227
162
10
UTTARAKHAND
UDHAM SINGH NAGAR
9746
7767
1839
140
UTTARAKHAND
UTTARKASHI
1114
1002
111
1
Data source: OGD

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