Decision Science NMIMS Assignment April 2022
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Decision Science NMIMS Assignment Solution April 2022
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NMIMS Global Access
School for Continuing Education (NGA-SCE)
Course: Decision Science
Internal Assignment Applicable for April 2022 Examination
Assignment Marks: 30
All Questions carry equal marks.
All Questions are compulsory
All answers to be explained in not more than 1000 words for question 1 and 2 and for
question 3 in not more than 500 words for each subsection. Use relevant examples,
illustrations as far as possible.
All answers to be written individually. Discussion and group work is not advisable.
Students are free to refer to any books/reference material/website/internet for attempting
their assignments, but are not allowed to copy the matter as it is from the source of
Students should write the assignment in their own words. Copying of assignments from
other students is not allowed.
Students should follow the following parameter for answering the assignment questions.
1. The table mentioned below shows the “Gross Production of Energy by Two Sources in
India from 2010-11 to 2015-16”.
Adopt Exponential Smoothing Method. Consider the Alpha (α) values 0.2, 0.5, 0.7 and
find out the one that is comparatively good for the prediction.
Forecast the value for year 2016-17.
Year Coal – (Million Tones) Lignite – (Million Tones)
2010-11 532.7 37.73
2011-12 539.95 42.33
2012-13 556.4 46.45
2013-14 565.77 44.27
2014-15 609.18 48.27
2015-16 639.23 43.84
Source: Open Government Data (OGD) Platform India
2. Consider the following Decision alternative for the Raman Pahwa, he wants to invest in
stocks, and thought about two situations about tomorrow’s market condition. The figures
(in INR) in the following table exhibit profit per unit of stock-investment.
Favorable market Unfavorable market
Lakshmi pvt ltd 55 26
Mehta Groups of industries 43 38
Surya 29 43
LT energy 15 51
1. Draw the decision tree
2. If we assign the following probabilities to the states of nature, then determine the
P(s1) = .4 P(s2) = .1 P(s3) = .3 P(s4) = .2
3.a. The proportion of eligible voters in the next corporation election (in tumkur) who will vote
for the incumbent is assumed to be 55%. What is the probability that in a random sample of
500 voters less than 49% say they will vote for the incumbent? Write your conclusion.
3.b. The top-selling Amar tire is rated 70,000 KMs, which means nothing. In fact, the distance
the tires can run until they wear out is a normally distributed random variable with a mean
of 82,000 KMs and a standard deviation of 6,400 KMs.
What is the probability that a tire wears out before 70,000 KMs?
What is the probability that a tire lasts more than 100,000 KMs?
Note: You may use Z-table for this.
Z-table link- Normal Table.xls
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